Tom Murphy, January 22, 2009

For the last two years of the Bush administration, public confidence has been fading fast on the country’s ability to address the biggest problems before it – notably the deepening problems with the economy. With approval ratings in the 20s, Bush will be remembered as one of the most unpopular presidents in history. Enter Barack Obama and his message of hope. One poll put his approval rating at 84 percent. Another showed three Americans have confidence in him for each one that doesn’t. On his first day, he set out to shift our policies on Iraq, the economy and the Middle East while his staff circulated a draft of an order to close Guantanamo. But what is most impressive may be his attitude, which has filled so many Americans with hope. "What an opportunity we have to change this country," he said. Amen. It’s easy to be optimistic as you start a new job, and there will be hard days ahead. But having a leader with that attitude can make all the difference.

Tom Murphy, January 19, 2009

For boomers, there is perhaps no more discouraging conflict than that in the Middle East. The fighting between Israel and its neighbors has continued for more than half a century, outlived the Cold War and continued as the US went in and out of conflicts in Korea, Vietnam, Bosnia and Iraq. It’s time to admit the US policies of the past have failed miserably and to move on. Even with a tenuous lull in fighting between Israel and Hamas, it is clear the potential for conflict is high, if not with Hamas then with Hezbollah, Lebanon, Syria and Iran. While leaders of Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia find it advantageous to maintain good relations with the west, their residents are becoming increasingly militant, raising the possibilty of less stability instead of more.  It’s time for Obama and Clinton to recognize a need for a dramatic change in US foreign policy and to engage other parties to force a change before the conflict moves to the global stage in an era when more of the players have nuclear capabilities. Obama has pledged change. Let’s believe that we can solve this problem by discarding the failures of the past.

Tom Murphy, January 16, 2009

While it may takes hundreds of years to document a change in climate, it’s only taken five seconds recently to know something ain’t right with the winter weather in the US. In the northern states, it’s been way colder than a normal January – about 20-30 degrees colder. It got so cold in Maine that salt couldn’t melt the ice on the road, and firefighters worried about their trucks freezing. Just try throwing snowballs at a house fire. Meanwhile, California is not only heading towards the driest January on record, but temperatures in the San Francisco Bay Area have been in the high 70s, even low 80s – about 20-30 degrees warmer than usual. In a typical year, you’d only find a few crazy surfers in wetsuits at the beaches during January. This year, whole families are running around in bathing suits, with kids splashing in the waves. Folks, that just ain’t right. Is global warming changing our climate? As Bob Dylan was noted, "You don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows."

Tom Murphy, January 9, 2009

You may have heard that the $1.19 trillion deficit expected for 2009 will be bigger as a percentage of our overall economy than even the dastardly deficit of the 1980s. But you may not recall how we fixed that back then. The deficit then stemmed from Ronald Reagan’s Cold War arms race, a dangerous contest that ultimately led to the economic destruction of the Soviet Union. When the Berlin wall came down, the US cut military spending and applied it to paying down the deficit, a move that strengthened the dollar, which in turn led to the ability for American companies and citizens to buy more goods and to invest in growing businesses. But it wasn’t until after the painful recession of 1989-92 and policy shifts in the Clinton Administration that a goodly number of jobs and rising tax revenue finally wiped out the deficit. Lesson learned: if you spend money at home, you can – over time – reduce deficits. Today we see Obama proposing a similar plan, and let’s hope it works. But one thing is clear: we still are looking forward to hard years that could make the recession of two decades ago seem like happy memories. Guard your pennies; you may need them, and they will buy more tomorrow than they will today.

Tom Murphy, December 30,  2008

It’s hard to believe that most of the residents of the Gaza or Israelis want war without end, yet it never seems to stop. There’s been so much brutality for so long, and nothing good has resulted from it. What is clearer is that the technology of war is getting fiercer – American-made war jets and increasingly sophisticated rockets are the current weapons of choice. The fool-hearty leaders of Israel and Hamas who believe war is the answer are completely dependent on these technologies for their campaigns of terror. Americans have long tried to broker a peace between Israel and its neighbors. Now it is time or a more practical step – cut off the technology and urge the UN to initiate an arms embargo to both sides. Perhaps then, Hamas and the Israeli government can turn to other means to settle their disputes – such as conversation.

Tom Murphy, December 22,  2008

As the economy slows down, big companies are cutting their spending to save money. They’re laying off workers, cutting prices and at least one has even cut its political contributions. States are being forced to do this, too, as tax revenue falls short of spending goals. And, of course, consumers are cutting back on their spending and haggling about prices. Everyone is trying to save and, finally, to live within their means. The problem that got us into this was because we spent too much when credit was cheap and easy to get. Now the rooster has come home and is roosting like he doesn’t plan to leave. So companies, states and people are adjusting their spending to more realistic levels. So, what did the Fed do to ease the crisis?  It’s making  money easier to borrow. That, it deduced, would spur lending and, in turn, more spending. But isn’t that what got us into this mess in the first place? Does anyone really believe that’s going to get us out of this mess?

Tom Murphy, December 9,  2008

As winter comes on, the economic conditions have put an extra chill in the air. Hundreds of thousands are out of work, and it looks like hundreds of thousands more will be joining them soon; auto companies are on the brink and most manufacturers are cutting back as sales decline. Gasoline has hit a five-year low, reflecting a frightening drop from the artificially high prices of earlier this year. Barack Obama says things will get worse before they get better, and yet somehow it’s reassuring to hear that from someone who’s charged with leading us out of this mess. In recent years, we’ve heard over and over again how there was record home ownership, businesses were adding jobs and the economy was "fundamentally strong."  It’s refreshing to hear the truth, even if it forecasts a long, cold winter for America.

Tom Murphy, November 27,  2008

It’s frightening how quickly Americans tend to shift their focus. A year ago, the Iraq war was concern No. 1. More recently, the domestic economy has overshadowed all. But events this week in Mumbai, Kabul and Baghdad show that Americans can no longer ignore the rest of the world. The terror attacks in India suggest spreading militarism that threatens a key US ally. In Kabul, President Hamid Karzai complained the seven-year Afghan war has made life worse for his country. And in Kabul, legislators debated how long Americans should be allowed to remain in Iraq. The economic crisis itself began in American suburbs, but has drawn in the entire world. The confluence of all these events is eerily reminiscent of the days that led to World War II.

Tom Murphy, November 23,  2008

Two years ago, as the US began "the surge" in Iraq, it also arranged a truce with Muqtada al-Sadr, whose Mahdi army had been running wild in Baghdad. Suddenly, most of the bloody car bombings stopped in the capital along with a lot of the street fighting between Shiite and Sunni factions. Bush claimed the surge was working. Well, now that fragile truce with al-Sadr may be about to end, just as Bush leaves office and is drawing down troops in Iraq. While the Iraqi government has OK’d a three-year extension for US troops in Iraq, al-Sadr ordered his followers into the street. A mob of thousands of Shiites burned Bush in effigy and demanded an immediate US withdrawal. As Obama takes office, the situation is likely to come to a boil, making it more difficult for the new president to shift troops from Iraq to Afghanistan, where they are needed to fight the Taliban and al-Qaeda. Al-Sadr’s aim is likely to create stronger ties with Iran, where the Shiite-led government has called for destruction of Israel. The bottom line is the situation in the region is tense and getting worse, and Americans who expect a rapid resolution when Obama takes office are very likely to be disappointed.

Tom Murphy, October 30,  2008

The good news is gas prices are coming down, down, down. Expect to see $2.50 a gallon before long, if you’re not already (I KNEW there was a good reason to be in New Jersey!). The bad news is the price of food is likely to soar due to inflation, unemployment is likely to soar past 8 percent, and home prices seem to have found themselves a hole that goes all the way to China. Except for gasoline, food prices will rise because the Fed has cut its "Fed Funds" rate to only 1%. It hasn’t been lower than than since the Eisenhower administration. That makes it cheaper to buy things on credit, but it also – in a very real sense – makes money cheaper. So the dollar falls against foreign currencies, and that means it costs more to import food. Most of our food now comes across the border because labor is cheaper outside the US, so food is likely to get more expensive. Home prices are falling at historic rates, robbing many boomers of equity they’ve stored in their homes. Poof! Gone! And companies that see sluggish consumer demand are cutting back production, and that means cutting back the workforce. If GM and Chrysler merge, that alone could mean an end to up to 35,000 manufacturing jobs. Poof! Gone! Well, at least gasoline is coming down – now that the demand for oil has fallen flat. Maybe if we stop eating, food prices will fall.

Tom Murphy, October 23,  2008

It’s not that I’m against the idea of government helping out when times are hard – I’m very much for it. During the Depression, the government put millions of people to work building roads, bridges, power plants and dams. Photographers like Dorothea Lange and songwriters like Woody Guthrie were paid by the government to create art and music. Theaters put on shows paid for by the Works Progress Administration. And the government encouraged companies to hire workers through tax breaks and incentives. Today, the government has set aside $700 billion to help banks stay afloat. But the people are hurting. The banks got in trouble because they sold mortgages that homeowners couldn’t afford, then sold bonds based on those shaky loans. While the banks now have government backing, those homeowners are being evicted in droves, and home prices continue to fall, driving middle class wealth down quickly and making it harder for anyone to buy anything. Clearly, the markets aren’t happy yet, not with a recession brewing. The government has committed only about $200 billion of that money to banks. Now’s the time to put a big chunk of it – maybe most of it – where it will do some good. Let’s bring back the WPA, a concept embraced by many economists. Or let’s help people pay their mortgages, like friend might. If we help people stay in their homes, those bank loans will be more stable and so will those bonds they sold. There will be less homelessness, less crime and fewer desperate souls among us. Uncle Sam can place a lien on the homes to make sure it will be repaid – as it would in a second mortgage. The risk is minimal and the rewards are great. As for the rest of that money? Well, we could all use a little art and music – and I know lots of starving artists.

Tom Murphy, October 1,  2008

A wise old journalism professor once advised me to follow two rules. First, never overestimate the intelligence of the average American. Second, never underestimate the intelligence of the average American. I’ve always tried to follow those rules, and thought about it when I saw that only about a quarter of voters think Sarah Palin has the background needed to be president. In a day when the news media lacks a lot of qreat analysis, and when Americans are bombarded with attack ads from all directions, it’s encouraging to see citizens taking the time and interest to consider this question seriously. Palin is a governor and, no doubt, is extremely smart and talented. But does that qualify her to be next in line to the Oval Office? Don’t ask me. Ask the average American.

Tom Murphy, September 20,  2008

Here at RedwoodAge.com, we preach moderation in all things: eating, exercise and spending. But Uncle Sam’s been doling out the cash freely. A couple of hundred million for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Another $85 billion to help out AIG. And most recently, several hundred billion dollars to bail out the lousy decisions made by banks on derivatives based on shaky home mortgages. What else could that money buy? Well, a UN agency just estimated that it would take only about $30 billion a year to end world hunger. $30 billion. That’s about what the US spends in Iraq every month. Perhaps our dear Uncle may want to reconsider his priorities.

Tom Murphy, September 12,  2008

Imagine what we’d do if one of our allies – say, for example, Saudi Arabia – sent a squad of elite soldiers into the United States and shot the hell out of a small village, killing a couple of dozen Americans that they didn’t like. I think tempers might run a bit high.  And what if the king then said, "Yeah, I approved that. In fact, I approved these kinds of raids months ago. And we’re going to keep doing them whether America likes it or not." Well, my friends, I’m afraid we’d be going to war with our ally. So it is with some considerable concern that we see President Bush authorizing the US military to strike at will within the sovereign borders of Pakistan, a US ally in the war on terror. We can recall what happened when Nixon ordered the secret bombing of Cambodia. Well, we’ve been firing missiles into Pakistani villages for years. This is a serious escalation from that. When we send armed soldiers into another country to kill people, it is an open invitation to others to do the same to the United States. Some Americans may think the raids in Pakistan make the US safer, but they actually undermine an already fragile relationship with the Pakistani government, which doesn’t like the terrorists any better than we do. To put our relationship with Pakistan at risk makes the world a more dangerous place, in Pakistan, Afghanistan and the United States.

Tom Murphy, September 4,  2008

While Americans debate whether Sarah Palin is qualified to be a heartbeat away from the presidency, the importance of that question is being played out in Georgia and Pakistan. Bush plans to give the Georgians $1 billion in aid and has dispatched a US flagship there. That’s likely to irk Mr. Putin, into whose soul Bush once gazed. In Pakistan, a raid on the frontier village of Waziristan is being blamed on US troops. But why did the US send troops into Pakistan to attack a village? The decision to attack another country, particularly an ally, must come from the Oval Office. These kinds of decision have enormous implications that can shift the balance of world power and start brutal, long wars. So, as the debate goes on about Ms. Palin’s pregnant daughter and duties in Wasila, does anyone know where she stands on the use of nuclear weapons?

Tom Murphy, September 2,  2008

It’s nice that the Republicans spending do much time worrying about hurricane victims, although it would have seemed so much more sincere if George Bush showed that by his actions three years ago during Katrina rather than waiting for the next GOP convention. Still, better late than never. But let’s hope those words translate into action, not just for those who get through the current storms, but for the thousands of people who lost their homes in Katrina and are still waiting for help with red tape and medical issues. We’d like to see the GOP and Democrats raise some money to help those long-suffering folks and the newer storm victims. Of course, anyone can help, and it’s a good idea. We’re all in this world together and the next disaster may  be the weather in your neighborhood.

Tom Murphy, August 26,  2008

Is it just me, or is there an uneasy sense of deja vu in the air as the Democrats debate the future of the world? Washington and Moscow are on tense terms over a missile crisis, this time in a country bordering Russia. War rages in far-off places, killing many Americans and far more Iraqis and Afghanis, as the US tries to save countries from themselves. The younger generation is frustrated with the older generation. And the poor get poorer while the rich get richer. A cynic might say things never change, except for the worse. But 40 years ago, the question was whether a black man could vote. Now it’s a question of whether he can become president. That’s progress. Women used to demand to be heard at the convention. Now House Speaker Nancy Pelosi decides who’ll be heard. Environmentalists once begged to be included in the discussion. Now the discussion is about global warming. One thing that hasn’t changed is that people are looking deep inside themselves for spiritual values that will guide them in tough times. For some, it’s Jesus or Allah. For others, it’s nature or meditation. But as long as people are looking, I remain among the optimistic.

Tom Murphy, August 18,  2008

They say truth is the first casualty in war, and we’ve seen a lot of spin lately. When Georgian troops marched into South Ossetia, there were widespread reports of brutality against civilians. But they were silenced when the Russians marched in, claiming they were trying to protect the break-away province’s citizens against the Georgians. The US media has since focused on the nasty Russians and paid scant attention to the Georgians, who are our allies. Where’s the truth? Probably somewhere in the middle. And then there’s Poland, which haggled for months with the US on whether it would accept those notorious missile systems. The Poles wanted Patriot missile system and the US was refusing them. All the haggling ended quickly when Russia moved into Georgia. The US said the Poles changed their mind after the Russian move. But the truth is the US finally agreed to add Patriots to the deal. The truth is important in both these cases because it affects our policies with the Russians going forward. Did the Georgians commit war crimes against their long-time opponents in South Ossetia as Russia claims?  If so, will the US ensure they are punished? And how would we feel if Russia decided to put missiles, say, in Cuba? There’s no room for half-truths in conversations about two nuclear powers.

Tom Murphy, August 14,  2008

Like most guys, I have a closet full of “favorite” clothes and drawers crammed with decades worth of memorable tee-shirts. I have sweaters I wore four decades ago in high school. I’ve got enough shoes to open a store (for guys who wear size 11). Why? Because I like them. Sure, I also like to buy new stuff to add to the collection. The resulting variety means I’m ready for whatever the fashion world throws at me. Slim ties? Got ’em. Fat ties? Got ’em. Tight slacks? Got ’em (in three waist sizes). I have khakis and jeans, but I’ve also got three-piece suits and cardigans. I have one leisure jacket, which I just bought last year in a swanky mens store. The salesman told me erroneously it was "the latest thing." He was young. It gets a lot of compliments, especially from young men who are stuck in those three-button straight jackets. I have a bunch of those, too. I love the retro fashions on the show Mad Men, and I guess I’m not the only one. Apparently, men are snapping up fashions from the ’60s,  As for me? Got ’em.

Tom Murphy, August 12,  2008

Sometimes it’s just amazing how out of touch the political wonks of Washington are with the real costs of growing old in America. Witness the reaction to Obama’s radical suggestion of waiving income taxes for seniors who earn less than $50,000 a year. Now, that may not be the best idea for many reasons. To start with, why pick $50,000?  But the pundits at firms like Deloitte, that provides tax consulting for the well-heeled, and at establishment think tanks like the Brookings Institution, took a less reasonable line of attack. They say seniors are well off. Supposedly, old folks all own homes while collecting those fat Social Security checks. If only that were true! Federal statistics tell us that one in five seniors actually lives in poverty. New York City, which has its own standards of poverty, says one-third of its elders live in poverty. And what if a senior does own a house? That cuts housing expenses, but it also means they also have to pay property taxes and upkeep. Many elders have had to sell their homes because they couldn’t keep up with the taxes, or they needed the equity that they carefully saved up over the years. And then what? They rent or move into federally subsidized housing, if they can find any. Social Security is fine, if you like falling behind farther every year. Many senior groups complain the annual cost-of-living raises leave Social Security recipients on the losing end of receiving the benefits they were guaranteed when they paid into the system through payroll deductions for 35 or 40 years. Heavens forbid we should give those high-living seniors a break!

Tom Murphy, August 9,  2008

Just as none of us is perfect, neither is any country. The Chinese criticizes the US, the US criticizes China, and both countries have issues with Russia, which complains right back. In the end, however, we’re all citizens of planet Earth and the Olympics are a symbol of that. They reflect the things we have in common as human beings, the potential for friendly competition, the pursuit of unattainable perfection. In four decades, the rapidly evolving Chinese government has turned from imposing a completely closed society to welcoming the world to the Olympics – a remarkable transformation. And George Bush has become the first US president to attend the games on foreign soil, but he’s brought along considerable political baggage that has offended the country where his father once served as ambassador. The Olympics – and these games in particular – mark a rare opportunity to open dialogues that lead to a better understanding that is likely to dominate world affairs for the next 50 years. Mr. Bush would do well to remember that.

Tom Murphy, August 3,  2008

There are millions of books, and nearly as many authors. Many of them enlighten us, but few of them change the world. Alexander Solzhenitsyn did that, winning global respect, a Nobel Prize and a place in history as he wrote, first, about the challenges of life under the Soviet system and, later, the unrelenting horror of Josef Stalin’s gulags. It was journalism in a style we rarely see: fearless, first-person observations along with vivid descriptions and eye-opening facts. Despite living in gulags for more than two decades, Solzhenitsyn proved that integrity and honor can spring from the human soul with a power that should make us all want to live every day with passion. He lived to the age of 89 and left behind books that will live much longer. What will we leave behind? Who will listen to us when we’re gone? 

Tom Murphy, July 25, 2008

The government has a way of making things sound better than they are. Today’s example is the good news for millions of workers that the federal minimum wage climbed to $6.55 an hour. For those of us who entered the workforce back in the ’70s, when the minimum was $1.65, that sounds nice. It totals $13,624 a year for 52 forty-hour weeks. Of course, a single person earning that would have to pay $1,653 in federal tax, plus any local income taxes. And then there are deductions for Social Security, DSI, etc.  If workers end up with $10,500, they lucky. They’re also JUST above the federal poverty line, which is $10,200. So they won’t be eligible for many programs designed to help the poor – thanks to the increased minimum wage. This affects people of all ages, and most especially retired folks who can’t make it on Social Security. For example, a recent survey found that a single retired person in California needs $21,011 just to meet the basic costs of living. New York City just determined that one-third of its seniors are poor, even though the federal poverty line would tell you the number was about one in five. The government can try to make this sound better, but who’s fooled? Certainly not a senior struggling to buy groceries on a minimum wage.

Tom Murphy, July 9, 2008

It’s a hot day among the redwoods of Northern California, with a temperature over 100. But I feel lucky to be here. This summer, we’ve already seen brutal tornados, enormous wildfires, catastrophic flooding, and the first hurricane of the year. These may not reflect the threat of global warming, but they provide a mild reminder of what may lie ahead if we don’t aggressively change our ways. It’s horrifying the vice president’s office censored scientific testimony about global warming. And it’s terrifying the richest eight countries lack the leadership to set aggressive short-term goals to address this mounting crisis. There are alternatives to driving gas-guzzling cars or burning coal to produce electricity. And if the government won’t pursue them, we all should anyway. Unless global warming is stopped quickly, the question of who to blame will be the least of our problems.

Tom Murphy,  June 12, 2008

What can you do when gas is well over $4 a gallon and corn jumps to a record $7 a bushel? Lots. You can drive less and ride a bike for short errands – it’s good for your health and your wealth. You can combine your shopping trips. If you have to commute by car – and most of us don’t – you can figure out how much you spend each week on gas and adjust your personal budget to make up the difference. That might mean cutting a few capuccinos, eating out less, and barbecuing chicken instead of steak. Read a book instead of seeing a movie. Talk to a friend face to face instead of on the cell phone. Gas prices are likely to stay high for at least a year. So get used to it. Maybe you’ll end up with a healthier body, a better mind and closer friends.