Cecily O'Connor
RedwoodAge.com

As the Senate opens the health care debate, there's yet another sign of the rising needs for costly treatments.

Over the next 25 years, the number of boomers living with diabetes will nearly double while spending on treatments for this chronic disease will nearly triple to $336 billion, according to a new study.

Those projections by researchers at the University of Chicago serve as another wake-up call to lawmakers about the already stressed US health care system. Similar rates are predicted for other chronic conditions such as Alzheimer's disease as the boomer population ages. The Senate began debate of its version of the legislation. 

It's expected that by 2034, there will be about 44.1 million people with diagnosed - and undiagnosed - diabetes, climbing from 23.7 million this year, researchers said in a report in the November issue of Diabetes Care. During the same period, annual spending related to diabetes is expected to rise to $336 billion from $113 billion.

Diabetes is a group of diseases marked by high levels of blood glucose that results from defects in insulin production, insulin action or both. The disease can contributed to serious health complications and even premature death, but people with diabetes can take steps to control the disease and lower their risk of complications.

Still, the aging US population poses a challenge to fighting the disease. About 23.1 percent of adults age 60 or older have diabetes, according to 2007 statistics by the American Diabetes Association.

New Factors to Consider
However, the study was done to help forecast the impact of alternative policies as Congress debates changes in the health care system, particularly to Medicare. Among the Medicare population, the number of diabetes cases is seen rising to 14.6 million from 8.2 million, while associated spending would jump to $171 billion from $45 billion.

Researchers constructed a cost model that accounts for diabetes risk factors the government had not previously taken into account. Obesity poses one of the biggest threats, while the natural history of the disease and the effects of treatments also were considered.

"We built this model to improve the budgetary and health outcome information available to federal policymakers," the researchers said in the report. "The model provides a rigorous assessment of the future burden of diabetes that accounts for the natural history of the disease and recent advances in treatment."

Researchers noted the analysis in this model also differs because it considers constant changes in the diabetes population over time, such as the aging of the  boomer generation and rising obesity rates in the US. The natural progression of the disease, such as the development of complications affecting the eyes, kidneys, circulatory and nervous systems were factored in, too.

"Without significant changes in public or private strategies, this population and cost growth are expected to add a significant strain to an overburdened health care system," the researchers concluded.