Tom Murphy
RedwoodAge.com
Consider this: The average 401(k) in the US held about $58,000 before this year's stock market downturn, and that was also before taxes. The average nursing home costs $80,000 a year, or about the same as a year in an Ivy League college.
Clearly, as 77 million boomers drift towards old age, something has to give.
To address the solution, a nonprofit foundation called the Business Innovation Factory has assembled a team to study the Nursing Home of the Future, and their initial findings suggest there's a lot of work to be done.
"One thing we've learned about aging is that there's a huge strain on our current system," team member Matt Cottam reports in a video about the project. "But there's going to be an even larger strain in the future as the boomers retire and eventually need nursing homes."
Cottam goes on to note the "system" is really the wrong word for the current state of affairs, which "no design" plan for caring for people as they age. There are hospitals, nursing homes, assisted living centers and many other facilities, but there is no coordination between them and costs are rising as stunning rates.
Already, the project has learned nine out of 10 nursing homes and assisted living centers are understaffed, with a current shortfall of 216,750 registered nurses and 613,750 certified nursing assistants.
There are already more nursing homes than McDonald's in the US: 15,281 compared to 13,542, although many might argue that is not a bad thing given obesity rates. Seven out of 10 boomers are overweight, which helps explain other chronic health woes: 35 percent have high blood pressure, 40 percent have heart disease, and 55-60 percent have high cholesterol, according to project data.
Every 7 Seconds
While those numbers may be frightening, Cottam and his team believe it will get
worse. Today, there are "only" 35 million Americans over the age of
65, but there will soon be 87 million, with another boomer turning 60 every
seven seconds.
This suggests there could be 5 million people living in nursing homes by 2030. Nursing home spending reach $125 billion by 2006, suggesting such spending will easily top a half-trillion a year within the next few decades, assuming only modest inflation.
The project plans to address this by experimenting in a number of areas - from room design to clothing, from medications to exercise - to find a better and more economical way to accommodate the boomer's longevity revolution.
The group is working with an above-average nursing home in Providence, R.I., called Tockwotten, to find new solutions. Even though Tockwotten is better than most nursing homes, problems with the overall concept are obvious.
"Opportunity [for change] is everywhere, everything we touched," said Cottam, who said elderly nursing home residents are eager to work with the project to experiment with new approaches. "We can all move forward and try to address some of these initial design opportunities we found."
