Tom Murphy
RedwoodAge.com
Sun Belt cities long-known for luring the fun-loving young are now attracting aging boomers in droves as a "senior tsunami" threatens to swamp some places you might not expect - like the suburbs.
Older boomers, who constitute a class known as "pre-seniors," have become the nation's fastest-growing population group, and will expand by half between 2000 and 2010, according to a study by The Brookings Institution, a nonpartisan research group based in Washington. They will unleash the aforementioned tsunami in 2011, settling down as the best-educated set of retirees ever.
"Almost all parts of the country will be gaining seniors faster in the future than in the recent past, but the magnitude and characteristics of senior growth will vary widely from place to place," William Frey, the report's author, wrote. "In many cases, areas previously known for their youthful populations - especially the Sun Belt and the suburbs - will undergo the most rapid senior growth."
That means, in part, that those communities will be forced to accommodate the needs of retiring boomers by making sure there are enough hospitals, age-appropriate housing options and other amenities that the aging population will demand. And Frey notes those demands "will likely differ sharply from the senior proclivities of the past."
Mold Breakers
"After all," he said, "as this unique generation of over 80
million Americans plowed its way through the nation's school systems, labor
markets, housing market and stock market, it continually broke the mold,
transforming both public and private institutions in its path."
For one thing, boomers are likely to be working longer, and Frey noted that as a factor that will affect their choice of where to live. An unrelated study released Tuesday by the nonpartisan Employee Benefit Research Institute showed older workers are choosing to stay in the workforce longer, often by starting new careers.
Frey singled out cities like Las Vegas, Austin, Atlanta and Dallas as examples of Sun Belt meccas that may start looking a little gray around the edges. On the state level, he noted "a solid wall in the West" of states that are attracting pre-seniors. Arizona, for example, will expand 80 percent during the current decade. The one big exception in the West is California, which will likely lose aging residents to neighboring states due to its high home prices and congestion.
Two other areas are also growing fast: Florida (no surprise there) and the New England "high amenity" states of Vermont and New Hampshire.
Aging in Place
It's not that most boomers have any plans to move. Most are happy right where
they are. Indeed, most of the growth will come from "aging in place"
rather than migration. In Arizona, for example, migration will only increase the
population by 2-5 percent over any five-year period. Arizonans aging in place
will increase the state's population by 19 percent between 2015 and 2020 alone.
"Fast growth of over 140 percent is projected to occur across a swath of states in the West, along with Texas, Georgia and Florida in the South," according to Frey. "Meanwhile, a large number of states in the nation's interior will exhibit much lower growth."
And the burbs? Frey points to a controversy there, noting some seniors - typically those with more money and fewer spouses - are moving from the suburbs into cities where they can have quick access to a wide range of amenities, such as quality health care. Others believe aging boomers will congregate in the suburbs.
"The outcome of this debate will not be settled until the baby boomers decide where to move as they age into their senior years," said Frey, who noted the baby boomers are the first truly suburban generation. "Whether these boomers would now leave behind their longstanding suburban existence for an urban one remains an open question."
